Tag Archives: Bureau of Meteorology

Part 9b. Elliott and Ali Curung, Northern Territory, Australia

Dr Bill Johnston

There is no evidence that the climate of Elliott or Ali Curung has warmed due to CO2, coalmining, electricity generation or anything else.

Elliott and Ali Curung are two isolated weather stations located far from anywhere. Elliott was a staging camp for northbound troops, established by Army Lieutenant Snow Elliott beside the Stuart Highway, about half-way between Alice Springs and Darwin. It is now a service town with a population of ~300, mainly Indigenous people. Ali Curung is an isolated Indigenous community of about 350 people, 467km ESE of Rabbit Flat, and approximately 170km south of Tennant Creek.

While the Ali Curung weather station closed in 2014, the current weather station at Elliott is about 150m NE of a sports field occupying a watered area of approximately 2 ha. (Google earth Pro satellite image, Airbus, 2025).

According to Wikipedia, Ali Curung was established between 1955 and 1958 by the Welfare Branch of the Northern Territory Administration after the Phillip Creek Aboriginal settlement ran out of water, forcing the community to relocate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Curung).   

Together with data for up to nine other sites, Elliott and Ali Curung have been used to homogenise Tmax data for several ACORN-SAT sites (dashed blue lines) including Camooweal and Rabbit Flat.

Why the Elliott and Ali Curung weather stations are important

Maximum temperature (Tmax) data for Elliott and Ali Curung is used to homogenise Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) data for Rabbit Flat (Bureau of Meteorology ID 15666), Tennant Creek (15135) and Camooweal (37010). In addition, Elliott is used to homogenise Victoria River Downs (14825), while Ali Curung is used for Alice Springs (15590) and was used for Boulia (38003).

Homogenization is the process used by BoM scientists to detect and adjust ACORN-SAT data for non-climatic effects such as site moves and changes. In turn, ACORN-SAT is used to monitor warming of Australia’s climate, with data reported by BoM/CSIRO’s state of the climate reports. The integrity of comparator datasets like Elliott and Ali Curung, is therefore critically important.

The research completes the assessment and analysis of comparator sites used to homogenise daily Tmax for Victoria River Downs and Rabbit Flat.

What the study showed

A major outcome of this and previous BomWatch studies is that many sites used to homogenise ACORN-SAT, including Elliott and Ali Curung are themselves plagued with incomplete and untrustworthy metadata, data gaps and low precision. Site conditions such as watering that affect observations, and replacement of former standard 230-litre Stevenson screens with 60-litre screens is never mentioned for example. 

The study raises serious questions as to whether BoM scientists, currently Blair Trewin, can truly produce reliable datasets for monitoring Australia’s climate, or if poor data and complex methods propagate and statistically mask original errors, while promulgating a smoke-and-mirrors –like belief that it can.

ACORN-SAT cannot simply hope for good reference data. Undertaking exploratory data analysis, which they don’t do, would show where comparator data fall-short. Averaging across multiple cross-correlated datasets that embed common faults, such is the case for Elliott and Ali Curung cannot make such problems vanish.

Conclusions

Due to the impact of step-changes related to site changes, watering, numerous data gaps, and low precision, temperature records for Elliott and Ali Curung are not suitable for homogenising other sites. The study calls into question the methodology underpinning ACORN-SAT, and in-turn, the suitability of ACORN-SAT to monitor warming of Australia’s climate.

Furthermore, in contrast to claims by BoM, CSIRO, allied university researchers, and Climate Council communicationists and activists, there is no evidence that the climate of Elliott or Ali Curung has warmed due to CO2, coalmining, electricity generation or anything else.

Important links

Click here for the detailed report

Click here for the the Datapack used in the analysis (*.xlsx)

20 August 2025

Methods Case Study, Gladstone, Queensland, Australia

Dr Bill Johnston [1]

Dr. Bill Johnston’s scientific interests include agronomy, soil science, hydrology and climatology. With colleagues, he undertook daily weather observations from 1971 to 1979.

Abstract

Main Points

  • The weather station at Gladstone Radar marks the approximate southern extremity of the Great Barrier Reef.
  • Temperature and rainfall data are used to case study an objective method of analysing trend and changes in temperature data.
  • The 3-stage approach combines covariance and step-change analysis to resolve site change and covariable effects simultaneously and is widely applicable across Australia’s climate-monitoring network.
  • Accounting for site and instrument changes leaves no residual trend or change in Gladstone’s climate.

Background

In Part 1 of this series, temperature and rainfall data for Gladstone Radar (Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) site 39326) are used to case-study a covariate approach to analysing temperature data that does not rely on comparisons with neighbouring sites whose data may be faulty.

Advantages of the method are:

  • The approach is based on physical principles and is transparent, objective and reproducible across sites.
  • Temperature data are not analysed as time-series in the first instance, which side steps the problem of confounding between serial site changes and the signal of interest.
  • Changes in data that are unrelated to the causal covariate are identified statistically and cross-referenced where possible to independent sources such as aerial photographs and archived plans and documents. Thus the process can’t be manipulated to achieve per-determined trends.
  • The effect of site-changes and other inhomogeneties are verified statistically in the covariate domain. Thus the approach is objective and reproducible.
  • Covariate-adjusted data are tested for trend and other systematic signals in the time-domain.

Further, statistical parameters such as significance of the overall fit (Preg), variation explained R2adj and significances of coefficients provide an independent overview of data quality.

An important link – find out more

The page you have just read is the basic cover story for the full paper. If you are stimulated to find out more, please link through to the full paper – a scientific Report in downloadable pdf format. This Report contains far more detail including photographs, diagrams, graphs and data and will make compelling reading for those truly interested in the issue.

click here to download the full case study including photographs and tables of data used.

Note: Line numbers are provided in the linked Report for the convenience of fact checkers and others wishing to provide comment. If these comments are of a highly technical nature, relating to precise Bomwatch protocols and statistical procedures, it is requested that you email Dr Bill Johnston directly at scientist@bomwatch.com.au referring to the line number relevant to your comment.   

[1] Dr. Bill Johnston’s scientific interests include agronomy, soil science, hydrology and climatology. With colleagues, he undertook daily weather observations from 1971 to 1979.